Predictions 2008

by Maxpower & D4V

MaxPower: It started in 2003. It came back due to popular demand in 2005. 2006 followed. And who can forget 2007. Of course, I am speaking about the yearly Reading For New Times editors picks and pans for the year, our predictions for 2008 and our cutting and honest assessment at our forecasting accuracy made through the harsh goggles of 20/20 hindsight.

D4V: Five years since we started “Predictions”? Yeeash.. Time is flying by at a record pace. Man, I miss doing these tag team articles, I think we should set a resolution to do more of these versus only once a year. Where the hell is Crom?

MaxPower: Before we assess the best/worst predictions for 2007, lets look back at some of the predictions made in the past five years. D4V (2003) – Global warming will melt ALL the ice on the planet by 2004. MaxPower (2005) – Google’s stock will come down from its current stratospheric US$200 price. MaxPower (2005) – The Canadian dollar will continue to appreciate vs. the US dollar. D4V (2005) – Apple will release a new iPod (perhaps making it less sucky). MaxPower (2006) – The Canadian dollar will continue to appreciate versus the US dollar reaching 90 cents. D4V (2006) The PS3 is going to kill the Xbox 360. MaxPower (2006) TiVo will join Blockbuster on the long slow road to obsolescence. D4V (2006) Microsoft’s release of Vista will be a huge disappointment.

D4V: Haha, Vista!

MaxPower: So as you can see we have an uncanny ability here to be either completely accurate or 100% wrong. So I invite you to take what we are saying here as either a Nostradamus-like truth or a hilariously incorrect rejoinder. There is no grey area.

Now to cast our critical eyes upon a selected look at R4NT’s 2007 predictions:

My own (that’d be MaxPower’s for those of you that are skipping straight to the goods):

• Interest rates will be cut this year. December 4, 2007 – The Bank of Canada announced it will cut its target interest rate by 0.25% to 4.25%. Bam. Full marks.
• Google will continue to buy stuff which doesn’t have any revenue or income generating potential but continues to get into more and more realms of everyday life, growing to the point where the motto of “Do No Evil” starts to sound pretty creepy. Oh yes, we’re there now. Google buys Adscape (March), DoubleClick (April), Zingku (mobile social networking, September), Jaiku (microblogging, October), Google Airwaves buying 700mhz spectrum (December) and a host of other purchases I can’t even be bothered to list. Yeah, creepy, I know.
• Flat panel TVs will have their biggest year ever in terms of sales as prices continue to slide. When was the last time you saw someone buy a CRT TV? Totally obsolete. To be honest though, this one was pretty easy.
• There will be a Canadian federal election. I know, I know, it sucks. Ah yes, I’m so happy that the one prediction I got totally wrong was the one I didn’t want to come true. Man I hate elections.

And how about D4V’s:

• Adoption rate of Vista will be sluggish at least during 2007. I’m betting on Apple’s market share to continue to rise. D4V categorized this one as “an easy one” and he certainly nailed the Vista problems. Corporate and personal adoption of Vista has been sluggish, due in part to continuing demand for XP as an operating system. As for Apple’s market share in computers there have been conflicting reports out recently. Some say that the intention of people to buy Mac computers is increasing, while other stats show Apple’s market share of the overall computer market (taking into account corporations) remained at about 5%.
• Myspace will crumble or vasssstly change before pulling a friendster. As far as buzz and general trends go, I’d be comfortable saying that Facebook is kicking Myspace’s web duex ass all around the interwebs. As for crumbling or actual stats on Myspace use, it is hard to say, but you get the feeling that Myspace is the friendster of tomorrow. Which, of course, means that Facebook is the Myspace of tomorrow’s tomorrow. Right?
• I (D4V) really hope for a huge environmental conscious shift in 2007. I for one plan on doing more recycling. October 10, 2007 – A UK court rules that Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth had nine errors which were made in “the context of alarmism and exaggeration”. December 10, 2007 Al Gore receives a Nobel Peace Prize. Amount of recycling undertaken by D4V in addition to what he did in 2006? Uncertain.

MaxPower: All in all, a pretty decent showing this year D4V. I think that some of our predictions were, as he said last year, “weak-sauce”, so I’ll endeavour to prove my prognosticating prowess and power by being a bit more specific this year. Oh and as a side point, in the last line of the 2007 predictions article, D4V pointed users to the forum, which as readers of R4NT know, no longer exists. That doesn’t look good in the ol’ prediction column. Heh.

D4V: The forum being knocked out of the magazine kinda came as a surprise. I've always known, however, that it had been a point of contention. The software proved to be just too large of a target and we paid that price with a few days of downtime (thank you backups!). Maybe I should predict it won’t come back in 2008. :)

MaxPower’s Predictions for 2008.

• The Canadian dollar will spend most of the year hovering around par with the US$ (+/- $0.05).
• Interest rates will be cut again, but contrary to popular opinion right now, the world will not slip into a global economic recession.
• The 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing which has been marked as a “coming out party for China” will go off without a major hitch thanks to China’s communist planning goodness.
• E-books will continue to be a failure (I’m looking at you Amazon).
• The new Indiana Jones movie will be awesome.
• Another band will do the “Radiohead” and put out an album either for free or ‘pay what you can’ over the internet and will further cement the decline of the conventional music industry’s road into obsolescence, joining both Blockbuster and TiVo, by showing that you don’t need a label if you have web buzz.
• Grand Theft Auto IV will be a massive massive hit.

D4V’s Predictions for 2008.

• Facebooks quick climb to a supremely high valuation (what’s a few billion between friends?) will allow them to IPO and continue to be extremely over valued. Secondly, I believe their huge press coverage will slow down as people are tiring of “the book”.
• Apple will release the iPhone is Canada sometime before summer (what in the hell is taking so long anyways). This will cause a shift in the way the Canadian carriers currently play out their monopolistic ways. I would hope to see some unlimited data rates creep in (hey, you can dream can’t ya?).
• Music will go more acoustic / organic this year, expect less digital sounding instruments and a resurrection to traditional samplings.
• Google will hit a stratospheric $1000/share valuation. Why? That handy looking 700mhz band they are trying to buy, gPhone (ie: Android), and a social networking icing layer.
• Blueray wins! Not really though, the demise of disc formats come to an end (watch Apple, Joost and open source solutions such as Miro).
• More technology (last one I promise).. Hard drives fizzle out in favor of the ever cheapening solid state alternatives.
• Worlds first African American President.
• OH! and finally.. My hair will reach record new hugeness.

D4V: Alrighty, lets bury this time capsule and see ya in 2009!

Maxpower & D4V