Predictions 2005

by Maxpower & D4V

MaxPower: Welcome to the 2005 edition of R4NT Predictions. With you in the New Year is myself MaxPower and D4V. Thanks for coming D4V, we?re going to look back at some of your more ?choice? predictions from 2003 and then make our own for the upcoming year.

D4V: The past year has been quite the delight in terms of some some of the new music that has come out, but on the flip side world politics are a complete gong show! 2005 should be interesting, who knows what’s going to happen; granted I’m sure we both know EXACTLY what’s going to go down.. Thus the article.

MaxPower: Right, now on to some past R4NT predictions listed, in my estimation, of ?good? and ?bad? predictive power. I hope you don?t mind D4V – I?m going to give some researched colour around my opinion of your predictions based on some quantifiable facts.

Good Predictions from 2003

• China will become ever more powerful ? very nice call D4V. Everything is about China now. Oil prices go up it?s due to China using so much oil. Textile prices come down it?s due to China making things cheaper. China was one of the top medal getters at the 2004 Athens Olympics and will host the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. If only you had followed your prediction and stuck some money into materials stocks back at the beginning of 2003, you?d be loaded.
• Popular Music will continue to suck ? again, nice call. While this isn?t all that quantifiable I think most people reading this will agree that, yes, ?popular? music does suck. But if you think about it, it could be proved in a way ? see the failure of the music industry to sell ?whole? CD?s anymore with the advent of legal downloading. No more do fans want a whole CD of an artists songs, they just want the two ?good ones? suggesting to me that even the buyers of popular music think it sucks.
• Computers will get faster – this wasn?t exactly a tough call, computers have obviously dramatically increased speed since January 2003. However, there was some discussion around mid-year ?04 that the so-called ?Moore?s Law? which states that the number of transistors on a given computer chip can be doubled every two years was about to fail. This is not a surprise as the laws of physics will at some point limit chip speed. But fear not, we still have a while to go yet and the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced a research program to develop new technologies at the start of December 2004 saying:
  “Most scientists now agree that our ability to continue the scaling of CMOS technology will reach its ultimate limit some time before 2020.”

Bad Predictions from 2003

• Sony will release the Playstation 3 ? Ouch. Sorry D4V, Sony has been having difficulties with the PS3 and have pushed back a launch from late 2005 to sometime (probably mid to late) 2006. Here is a hint for any people interested in the most up-to-date and correct news about the PS3 (or Xbox 2 for that matter): just take a look at Sony?s and Microsoft?s annual and quarterly reports. Because the release of a new gaming system is a material event with respect to the profitability of the company, the companies must disclose delays with developing the system in order to properly inform analysts.
• The Gap will not change their advertising campaign ?? While it may have seemed like those old school Gap commercials (remember the one where the cowboys danced around in Khakis?) would go on forever, they have indeed changed. Oh yes, now they have Mary J. Blige and Sarah Jessica Parker the improvement is startling and my sarcasm biting.

Finally, what the entire world has been waiting for ? R4NT?s 2005 Predictions!

First off MaxPowers:

• Microsoft will give Google a run for the leading search engine, but Gmail will rule Hotmail?s world. As a side prediction, Google?s stock will come down from it?s current stratospheric US$200 price.
• The Canadian dollar will continue to appreciate versus the US dollar getting over 85 cents
• Iraqi elections will be a gong show
• Hackers will exploit a weakness in a Windows product
• Cell phone viruses will be the new BIG things
• The show Joey will be canceled
• Plasma/LCD screens will continue to get cheaper and more prevalent
• Gateway Computers will get taken over

D4V’s:

• Microsoft will continue to turn a blind eye to Firefox (while more users switch) and will stick with it’s plans to update Internet Exploder (er, Explorer) with their new incarnation of Windows in 2006 (Longhorn)
• SUV’s will lose market share to those new trendy wagon cars
• The show Joey will get renewed because the public likes canned sitcom rehashes (see ‘Fraiser’)
• Someone will attempt to destroy an American icon
• President Bush will continue to make millions scratch their head trying to figure out what he’s trying to say
• Multimedia projectors will become an even hotter item
• Apple will release a new iPod (perhaps making it less sucky)

D4V: Well that’s about it, I guess we’ll check in again in a year and see what happens. Oh and if you want to start a flame we encourage you to join us in our forum!. :) Happy New Year.

Maxpower & D4V